Hello to all..
..Tropical Storm Danny Continues to Pose a Potential Threat to Southern New England. Intensity and Track Remains Uncertain. National Hurricane Center Continues to Prompt Interests in New England to monitor the progress of Danny..
..Threat timeframe would be from Saturday Morning to Saturday Evening with rainfall as a 'predecessor event' occuring late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night before Danny's rainfall arrives on Saturday. Potential threats are strong winds, heavy rainfall, river/stream/urban flooding and coastal flooding. Rough seas and rip currents are likely..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for a long period from Saturday Morning through late Saturday Evening/early Sunday Morning depending on the track and intensity of Tropical Storm Danny..
Unfortunately, since the last coordination message, little has changed in terms of model track guidance and now the intensity of the system which is now weaker than originally anticipated and whether it takes on attributes of a tropical and non-tropical system or 'hybrid' all remain questions at this time. Tropical Storm Danny as of this coordination message is barely a tropical storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 MPH. The system is in a 'shear pattern' with most of its rain and winds currently to the east of an exposed low-level center. This has prompted a hold on any watches and advisories for the region as their remains considerable uncertainty in track and intensity.
Computer models remain in different camps with the GFS, NAM, NOGAPS, Canadian, European model implying a track toward Southeast New England. Other models such as the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are closer to the 40 North/70 West benchmark. This has created issues in terms of the actual track of the system. The current official NHC track is near that 40 North/70 West benchmark.
Intensity forecast is also highly problematic. There is limited skill in forecasting intensity of tropical systems as witnessed by the unexpected weakening of Danny. This is further complicated by the fact that Danny could transition to some form of system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics known as a hybrid on approach to New England as it takes advantage of the clash of cool Canadian air over the region now and the warm tropical airmass where it is originating and could actually become a stronger system but one that is not totally tropical. Unfortunately, the scenario with Danny is complex and with the current weak state of the system and erratic movement, models have not initialized well on the strength of the system nor its track. Also, given that it may take on both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, it is tough to discern whether hurricane models, the usual dynamic models utilized to handle non-tropical systems or a combination/consensus of both !
models will provide the best guide on track and intensity.
The two items that have the highest likelihood of occurring is heavy rainfall Friday Night through Saturday Night and rip currents, high surf and rough seas on area beaches and for marine interests. Rainfall of 3-6" with isolated higher amounts remains likely in a swath somewhere over Southern New England. The most likely swath at this time is over the I-95 corridor but other areas could see a general 1-3" of rain with higher amounts as between the front and Danny's approach there will be a high level of moisture available. No Flood Watches have been issued at this time because it is not completely clear where the axis of heaviest rainfall will setup but heavy rainfall over some portion of Southeren New England is likely and Flood Watches will likely be issued for portions of the region later today.
Rough seas, high surf and rip currents are likely on the offshore waters and near area beaches once again. While Danny is a weak system, it does have tropical storm force winds extending outward 205 miles mainly east of the center and this will be sufficient for rough seas, high surf, rip currents and wave action which will be a threat on area beaches and marine interests. A High Surf Advisory could be issued unless Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are hoisted up for the region.
The next two threats where it is unclear to know the extent is strong winds and coastal flooding. With Danny's wind field all to the east of the center at this time, there is the possibility of no strong winds over the area but if Danny becomes more of a hybrid or gets more organized as a tropical system, strong winds and coastal flooding of a minor to moderate nature are possible if that wraps to the western part of the circulation or a track further west over Southeast New England occurs. It is noted that the tides for this weekend are not the spring/astronomical high tide levels. It is hoped that future trends on Danny and computer models will better define this threat in the next 12-18 hours.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains likely Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for heavy rainfall/flooding, and possible strong wind and coastal flood threats. The next coordination message which will be a complete message barring uncertainty continuing will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the TPC/NHC Advisory package information for Tropical Storm Danny:
Between Danny, my dog barking all night when I am gone (just found that out from an upset neighbor) and a wake/funeral to attend this weekend it looks like my plans of a vacation in Maine are out the window
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